It is not surprising that the topic of the post al-Shabaab governance of Kismayo has received some attention among observers of Somalia and the Islamist group. There have been a number of good articles written on the current situation and the challenges facing the Somali Government and AMISOM as they attempt to assert their control over the city and its surrounding areas. However, should a reader be pressed for time there are three articles in particular from among these that can provide a good generally background and analysis of these issues.
The first of these is by Katherine Zimmerman, an analyst at the American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project, provides some brief background information on the campain that lead to the fall of Kismayo, some of the challenges of installing a new administration and what the loss of the city may mean to al-Shabaab. This article can be read here.
The second article is yet another excellent contribution by the well-known expert on Somalia and the Horn of Africa region, Professor Ken Menkhaus. In his article Professor Menkhaus manages to cover a wide range of issues both briefly and succinctly in a manner that both seasoned watchers or casual observers of Somalia may find useful. This article can be read here.
The third article is from the excellent SomaliaReport, which like the other two articles provides important background information to the capture of Kismayo as well as posing a number of questions that deserve careful and thoughtful consideration. This article can be read here.
It will be important that both the internationally backed Somali Government and AMISOM take a careful and considered approach to the administration of Kismyao. It is certain that al-Shabaab itself will be watching developments in the city closely for any opportunity to both attack targets and build discontent against the new masters of the city.
One such method appears to be stoking local fears that Kenya wishes to exert dominance and control over Kismayo for its own benefit. This was evident in a recent statement released on the pro-Shabaab radio station 'al-Furqaan' by the groups spokesman Sheikh Ali Dhere in which he attempted to raise this specter. A recording of this statement can be heard here and a brief article on the contents of the statement can be read here (Somali).
The danger of al-Shabaab exploiting any opportunity given to it is not lost on either the Somali Government and its allies (AMSIOM, Ras Kamboni Movment). A recent press release AMISOM demonstrated that it understands the need to avoid civilian casualties and cause as little disruption to civilian life as possible by announcing the establishment of "No‐Fire Zones around markets, schools, mosques and hospitals." Nevertheless despite such caution incidents such as the killing of Somali civilians by a Kenyan soldier may still occur inside Kismayo. While such incidents may cause considerable anger among the civilian population it is also possible that any civilian deaths, destruction of property or disruption to daily life that occur through the actions of al-Shabaab may in turn be blamed on the Somali Government and AMISOM.
Given the complicated nature of all the issues concerning the post al-Shabaab governance of Kismayo it is difficult, indeed probably foolhardy, to attempt to make any predictions regarding the outcome for any of the parties involved. It may be that the control of the city may turn on the back of a single even or perhaps smolder until the eruption of a conflagration that would see the return of al-Shabaab - or perhaps neither will occur at all. What can be known for sure however is that both sides, and even internal factions, will all be watching developments closely and seek to turn them to their own advantage.
Friday, 5 October 2012
Thursday, 4 October 2012
al-Kataib Media presents: "A Message to François Hollande: A Video Message from the French Prisoner Denis Allex"
The al-Kataib Media Foundation has released a new video entitled "A Message to François Hollande: A Video Message from the French Prisoner Denis Allex"
(Arabic: "رسالة إلى فرانسوا أولاند: كلمة مرئية للأسير الفرنسي "دينيس اليكيس )
This video runs for a total length of 4 minutes 17 seconds and features s the French citizen Denis Allex speaking directly to the camera in French (English subtitles are provided). Denis Allex is an agent of France's external security agency, the Direction Générale de la Sécurité Extérieure (DGSE) who was abducted along with his colleague Marc Aubrière from the hotel they were staying at in Mogadishu on 19 July 2009. Although Marc Aubrière was able to escape his captors Denis Allex has remained in captivity.
It is notable that in this video Denis Allex says that the video was recorded in month of July 2012 and that the end credits indicate the video was produced in August 2012. The release of this video has therefore been delayed for anywhere up to almost two months. While the reasons for this delay are unknown it is almost certain that given the recent military and strategic defeats suffered by al-Shabaab, particularly the recent fall of Kismayo, that the Islamist group may now be attempting to utilize Denis Allex as a bargaining chip or means of pressuring France to drop its support of the Somali Government and AMISOM. Whatever the case it is clear through the message delivered in this video that the safety and well-being of Denis Allex continues to remain precariously balanced. Should al-Shabaab determine that their hostage no longer represents any value to the group as a bargaining chip or source of ransom then it is likely, as hinted at in this video, he will be executed.
It is notable that in this video Denis Allex says that the video was recorded in month of July 2012 and that the end credits indicate the video was produced in August 2012. The release of this video has therefore been delayed for anywhere up to almost two months. While the reasons for this delay are unknown it is almost certain that given the recent military and strategic defeats suffered by al-Shabaab, particularly the recent fall of Kismayo, that the Islamist group may now be attempting to utilize Denis Allex as a bargaining chip or means of pressuring France to drop its support of the Somali Government and AMISOM. Whatever the case it is clear through the message delivered in this video that the safety and well-being of Denis Allex continues to remain precariously balanced. Should al-Shabaab determine that their hostage no longer represents any value to the group as a bargaining chip or source of ransom then it is likely, as hinted at in this video, he will be executed.
Source: https://113.20.29.51/vb/showthread.php?t=71991
If for any reason this video is no longer available please email us and we will arrange for it to be made available again at the earliest opportunity.
Tuesday, 2 October 2012
al-Kataib Media Presents: "The Video Report Regarding the Renovation Project of Some of the Roads and Bridges in the Islamic State of Juba"
The al-Kataib Media Foundation has released a new video entitled "The Video Report Regarding the Renovation Project of Some of the Roads and Bridges in the Islamic State of Juba" (Arabic: التقرير المرئي حول مشروع ترميم بعض الطرق والجسور في ولاية "جوبا" الإسلامية)
## قريباً بإذن الله تعالى من مؤسسة الكتائب ##
* كلمة صوتية للشيخ على ديري حفظه الله .
** رسالة إلى فرانسوا أولاند من الأسير الفرنسي " دينيس اليكيس "
______________________________________________________
بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
قناة الكتائب الإخبارية
تــــقـــدم
قناة الكتائب الإخبارية
تــــقـــدم
التقرير المرئي حول مشروع ترميم بعض الطرق والجسور
في
ولاية "جوبا" الإسلامية
في
ولاية "جوبا" الإسلامية
## قريباً بإذن الله تعالى من مؤسسة الكتائب ##
* كلمة صوتية للشيخ على ديري حفظه الله .
** رسالة إلى فرانسوا أولاند من الأسير الفرنسي " دينيس اليكيس "
------------------------------------------
اللهم منزل الكتاب مجري السحاب هازم الأحزاب، اهزم الصليبيين ومن حالفهم من المرتدين.
اللهم اجعلهم وعتادهم غنيمة للمسلمين.
اللهم دمّرهم و زلزلهم.
اللهم أنت عضدنا وأنت نصيرنا،اللهم بك نصول وبك نجول وبك نقاتل.
والله أكبر
{وَلِلَّهِ الْعِزَّةُ وَلِرَسُولِهِ وَلِلْمُؤْمِنِينَ وَلَكِنَّ الْمُنَافِقِينَ لا يَعْلَمُونَ}
مُؤسَّسةُ الكَتائِب للإنتَاج الإعلامِي
حَركةُ الشَّبابِ المُجَاهدِين
الثلاثاء 12 ذو القعدة 1433 هـ
02/10/2012
المصدر : (مركز صدى الجهاد للإعلام)
الجبهة الإعلامية الإسلامية العالمية
رَصدٌ لأخبَار المُجَاهدِين وَ تَحرِيضٌ للمُؤمِنين
اللهم منزل الكتاب مجري السحاب هازم الأحزاب، اهزم الصليبيين ومن حالفهم من المرتدين.
اللهم اجعلهم وعتادهم غنيمة للمسلمين.
اللهم دمّرهم و زلزلهم.
اللهم أنت عضدنا وأنت نصيرنا،اللهم بك نصول وبك نجول وبك نقاتل.
والله أكبر
{وَلِلَّهِ الْعِزَّةُ وَلِرَسُولِهِ وَلِلْمُؤْمِنِينَ وَلَكِنَّ الْمُنَافِقِينَ لا يَعْلَمُونَ}
مُؤسَّسةُ الكَتائِب للإنتَاج الإعلامِي
حَركةُ الشَّبابِ المُجَاهدِين
الثلاثاء 12 ذو القعدة 1433 هـ
02/10/2012
المصدر : (مركز صدى الجهاد للإعلام)
الجبهة الإعلامية الإسلامية العالمية
رَصدٌ لأخبَار المُجَاهدِين وَ تَحرِيضٌ للمُؤمِنين
If for any reason this video is no longer available please email us and we will arrange for it to be made available again at the earliest opportunity.
Monday, 1 October 2012
Fall of Kismayo
The fall of Kismayo to AMISOM (Kenyan Defence Force) and Somali government forces followed an unexpected withdrawal from the city which has provide significant sources of revenue for al-Shabaab since its capture by the Islamist group in 2008. This failure to defend the city fits into a pattern followed by the group since it conceded control of the nations capital to the Somali government and AMISOM in August 2011. Since then the Islamist group has withdrawn from a number of major towns including Afgoye, Afmadow, Baidoa and Marka rather than confront the overwhelming fire-power of AMISOM forces - this advantage has been particularly notable through the use of helicopter gun-ships and fighter aircraft by the Kenyan Defence Forces.
While the loss of towns and territory may have a severe effect on the ability of al-Shabaab to collect revenue and organise training centres of its fighters the group has nevertheless managed to preserve much of its already battle-hardened forces - not withstanding the defection of some possibly second-tier units. Still, despite the loss of Kismayo and other major centres the groups still maintains control over large areas of southern Somalia and continues to pose a threat inside urban centres as recent attacks in Mogadishu clearly demonstrated.
Following the success of capturing Kismayo the task of securing and governing the city will now pose new challenges to the Somali government and AMISOM. These challenges have already been covered in a series of excellent papers and articles that should provide any reader with an excellent introduction to the complexities of governing post-Shabaab Kismayo.
Recommended Reading:
While the loss of towns and territory may have a severe effect on the ability of al-Shabaab to collect revenue and organise training centres of its fighters the group has nevertheless managed to preserve much of its already battle-hardened forces - not withstanding the defection of some possibly second-tier units. Still, despite the loss of Kismayo and other major centres the groups still maintains control over large areas of southern Somalia and continues to pose a threat inside urban centres as recent attacks in Mogadishu clearly demonstrated.
Following the success of capturing Kismayo the task of securing and governing the city will now pose new challenges to the Somali government and AMISOM. These challenges have already been covered in a series of excellent papers and articles that should provide any reader with an excellent introduction to the complexities of governing post-Shabaab Kismayo.
Recommended Reading:
- Al-Shabaab, Jubbaland, and the Future of Kismayo by Tres Thomas
- Kismayo Hasn’t Fallen Yet; Even If It Had, It Wouldn’t Be the End of the Shabab by M. Mubarak
- After the Kenyan Intervention in Somalia by Ken Menkhaus (Enough Project, January 2012)
- The Kenyan Military Intervention in Somalia International Crisis Group (Africa Report N°184, 15 February 2012)
Saturday, 29 September 2012
News reports from al-Shabaab (28-09-2012)
Collection of News reports from al-Shabaab covering the days of 21, 22, 23, 24 and 25 September 2012
بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
الحمد لله وحده أعز جنده ونصر عبده وهزم الأحزاب وحده والصلاة والسلام على من لا نبي بعده أما بعد:
الحمد لله وحده أعز جنده ونصر عبده وهزم الأحزاب وحده والصلاة والسلام على من لا نبي بعده أما بعد:
بيان بخصوص المؤتمر الذي أعلن فيه عن تراجع الحزب الإسلامي عن الوحدة مع حركة الشباب المجاهدين
أعلن المتحدث العسكري لحركة الشباب المجاهدين الشيخ عبد العزير أبو مصعب أن المجاهدين سيواجهون أي مخطط يهدف إلى شق صف المجاهدين في الصومال، وجاء رد الشيخ أبو مصعب بعدما تناقلت وسائل الإعلام مؤتمراً صحفياً عقده المدعو (محمد معلم) أعلن فيه أن الحزب الاسلامي الذي انضم سابقا لحركة الشباب المجاهدين تراجع عن الوحدة على حد قوله، وقال الشيخ أبو مصعب "أن وحدة المجاهدين في الصومال جاءت بفضل الله نتيجة جهود مرت بعدة مراحل، وبعد سنتين من الوحدة صار المجاهدون في الصومال أقوى تماسكا من حيث العدد والعدة، لذا فإن جنود المجاهدين سيواجهون بيد من حديد كل من يحاول إفشال وحدتهم وتماسكهم".
جدير بالذكر أن المدعو (محمد معلم) هرب إلى كينيا بعدما انضم الحزب الإسلامي لحركة الشباب المجاهدين، وبعد سنتين من وحدة المجاهدين عاد مجددا إلى مقديشو ليعلن تراجع الحزب الإسلامي عن الوحدة حسب زعمه، والكل يعلم أن المدعو محمد معلم ليس له أي نشاط داخل المجاهدين يؤهله لإعلان خبر مثل هذا.
(التقرير الإخباري ليوم (الجمعة 5 ذوالقعدة 1433
أخبار متفرقة: - تمكنت كتيبة المتفجرات بولاية بنادر الإسلامية من استهداف مدرعة تابعة للصليبيين الأفارقة في تقاطع "فلورنسا" وأسفرت العبوة عن تدمير المدرعة بالكامل ومقتل جميع من كان على متنها.
- هاجمت كتائب المجاهدين بولاية باي وبكول الإسلامية على مراكز عسكرية للقوات الإثيوبية النصرانية في مدينة "قنسح ديري"، بدأ الهجوم بعدما حاولت القوات النصرانية التحرك نحو المناطق التي تقع تحت سيطرة المجاهدين، واندلعت معركة ضارية استمرت قرابة 40 دقيقة، وأجبر المجاهدون بفضل الله العدو على التراجع، وتؤكد مصادر المجاهدين وقوع خسائر في الأرواح في صفوف القوات الإثيوبية.
- هجوم على مراكز المرتدين في أجزاء من مديرية لفولي على الطريق بين مقديشو وأفجوي، أسفر الهجوم عن مقتل عدد من مليشيات المرتدين.
(التقرير الإخباري ليوم (السبت 6 ذوالقعدة 1433
أخبار متفرقة: - قامت إحدى الكتائب الأمنية بولاية بنادر الإسلامية باغتيال عضو في برلمان حكومة الردة، وقد اغتيل المدعو " مصطفى محمد حاج " في مديرية "وابري" بولاية بنادر الإسلامية، وتمت عملية الاغتيال بالمسدسات.
- استهدفت إحدى الكتائب الأمنية بولاية شبيلي السفلى بعدة قنابل يدوية تجمع لمليشيات الردة في مدينة مركا عاصمة ولاية شبيلي السفلي، وأسفرت القنابل عن مقتل 4 من مليشيات الردة على الفور.
(التقرير الإخباري ليوم (الثلاثاء 9 ذو القعدة 1433
أخبار متفرقة: - أعلن مكتب السياسة والولايات التابع لحركة الشباب المجاهدين عن نجاح عملية الصلح بين قبيلتي "عَير" و "سليبان" التي استمرت جلساتها لعدة أسابيع وانتهت المصالحة بتفاهم تام بينهما بفضل الله.
وتحدث مسؤول من مكتب السياسة والولايات عبر إذاعة الأندلس الإسلامية عن العملية وأكد أن إدارة مدينة "حررديري" شرعت في عملية المصالحة قبل أكثر من ثلاثة أسابيع، وفور وقوع الاشتباكات أرسلت الإدارة كتائب من المجاهدين حالت دون وقوع المزيد من الخسائر، وشكر المسؤول في مكتب السياسة والولايات إدارة المجاهدين وزعماء العشائر والأعيان الذي شاركوا في الصلح وأوصى القبيلتين بالتآخي والمحبة وأن لا يعطوا فرصة للكفار كي يستغلوا مثل هذه النزاعات لتحقيق أهدافهم في المنطقة.
- أصدرت قبيلة "سذي" إحدى القبائل التي تسكن ولايتي جوبا وقيذو بيانا تؤكد فيه أنها ستنتقم لشهداء مجزرة "برتا دير" التي أعدمت فيها القوات الصليبية الكينية تسعة من أبناء القبيلة بدم بارد، نسأل الله أن يتقبلهم في الشهداء.
وجاء في البيان الذي أصدرته القبيلة (نحن كقبيلة "سذي" نؤكد وقوفنا إلى جانب أبنائنا المجاهدين الأبطال وسننتقم من المجزرة الشنيعة التي قتلت القوات الكينيية الغازية فيها ثلة من أبناء القبيلة في قرية "برتا دير" إحدى القرى التابعة لولاية جوبا الإسلامية).
(التقرير الاخباري ليوم (الإثنين 8 ذو القعدة 1433
:أخبار متفرقة - شنت كتائب المجاهدين بولاية جوبا الإسلامية قبيل المغرب هجوما على عدة مواقع عسكرية للجيش الكيني وميليشيات الردة في منطقة "برتا دير" التي تبعد عن مدينة كسمايو 70 كيلو، وقد استمر الهجوم لعدة ساعات متواصلة وخلال العملية قامت كتيبة المدفعية بقصف مستودعات الذخيرة والمراكز التي يتجمع فيها الكينيون والمرتدون وشوهدت ألسنة اللهب وهي تتصاعد من بعض المستودعات المستهدفة، وأفادت مصادر المجاهدين أن عدد الجرحى والقتلى في الهجوم بلغ حوالي 30 جريح وقتيل من الكينيين والمرتدين بفضل الله.
- قُتل جندي من مليشيات الردة في مدينة بلدوين عاصمة ولاية هيران الإسلامية بعدما ألقت إحدى الكتائب الأمنية قنبلة يدوية على تجمع لمليشيات الردة وسط المدينة.
- وقعت اشتباكات بين مليشيات المرتدين في ضواحي مديرية لفولي على الطريق بين مقديشو وأفجوي، وأوقعت الاشتباكات أكثر 18 قتيلا وعدد أكبر من الجرحى.
(التقرير الإخباري ليوم (الأحد 7 ذو القعدة 1433
:أخبار متفرقة- قُتل خمسة من الجيش النصراني الكينيي وأحرقت ثلاثة مدرعات عسكرية بعدما شنت كتائب المجاهدين المرابطة بولاية جوبا الإسلامية هجوما مباغتا على عدة معسكرات للقوات النصرانية في قرية "برتا دير"، واستمر الهجوم لمدة ساعة أطلق فيها المجاهدون عدد من قذائف الهاون على معسكرات الجيش النصراني الكينيي.
وبعد انتهاء الهجوم اعتقلت القوات الكينية 9 من أبناء القرية وأعدمتهم بدم بارد، وندد رؤساء العشائر بولايتي قيذو وجوبا الإسلامية بالمجزرة الشنيعة التي ارتكبتها هذه القوات الكينية وطالبوا أبناءهم المجاهدين بالانتقام لهذه المجزرة.
يذكر أن القوات الكينية قصفت عدة مرات قرى ومناطق سكنية وأودت هذه الغارات بحياة عشرات الأبرياء من الأطفال والنساء والعزل.
- تواصل مليشيات الردة المدعومة من جانب القوات الأفريقية حملة الاعتقالات التي تستهدف الشيوخ والاطفال والشباب والنساء بحجة الانتماء لحركة الشباب المجاهدين، وقد طالت الحملة عدة أحياء من مديريتي هودون ودينيلي، واعتلقت مليشيات الردة في الحملة مئات من أبناء هذه المديريات، جدير بالذكر أن ميليشيات الردة اعتقلت عدة آلاف من سكان مقديشو في الأسابيع الماضية وتم إطلاق سراحهم بعد دفع فديات مالية كبيرة، ومن لم يتمكن من دفع الفدية يتم توجيه التهمة إليه بالانتماء إلى حركة الشباب المجاهدين.
- إلقاء عدة قنابل يدوية داخل مركز شرطة الردة في مديرية شبس بولاية بنادر الإسلامية، ولا يعرف حصيلة القتلى والجرحى التي لحقت بصفوف المرتدين.
اللهم منزل الكتاب مجري السحاب هازم الأحزاب، اهزم الصليبيين ومن حالفهم من المرتدين.
اللهم اجعلهم وعتادهم غنيمة للمسلمين.
اللهم دمّرهم و زلزلهم.
اللهم أنت عضدنا وأنت نصيرنا،اللهم بك نصول وبك نجول وبك نقاتل.
والله أكبر
{وَلِلَّهِ الْعِزَّةُ وَلِرَسُولِهِ وَلِلْمُؤْمِنِينَ وَلَكِنَّ الْمُنَافِقِينَ لا يَعْلَمُونَ}
مُؤسَّسةُ الكَتائِب للإنتَاج الإعلامِي
حَركةُ الشَّبابِ المُجَاهدِين
الجمعة 12 ذو القعدة 1433 هـ
28/09/2012
(المصدر : (مركز صدى الجهاد للإعلام)
اللهم اجعلهم وعتادهم غنيمة للمسلمين.
اللهم دمّرهم و زلزلهم.
اللهم أنت عضدنا وأنت نصيرنا،اللهم بك نصول وبك نجول وبك نقاتل.
والله أكبر
{وَلِلَّهِ الْعِزَّةُ وَلِرَسُولِهِ وَلِلْمُؤْمِنِينَ وَلَكِنَّ الْمُنَافِقِينَ لا يَعْلَمُونَ}
مُؤسَّسةُ الكَتائِب للإنتَاج الإعلامِي
حَركةُ الشَّبابِ المُجَاهدِين
الجمعة 12 ذو القعدة 1433 هـ
28/09/2012
(المصدر : (مركز صدى الجهاد للإعلام)
_____________________________________________________
Source:
http://www.aljahad.com/vb/showthread.php?p=61236#post61236
Thursday, 27 September 2012
Al-Shabaab Statement on Reported Split with Hizbul Islam
On 24 September the BBC reported that a spokesman for Hizbul-Islam, a Somali Islamist group that was led by Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys and forcibly incorporated into al-Shabaab in December 2010, had announced a split between the two groups. This story generated considerable interest due to previously reported tensions between Sheikh Aweys and other senior leaders of al-Shabaab over the groups strategic direction and tactics. It should be noted that similar stories of Sheikh Aweys splitting from al-Shabaab have proven false in the past.
In response to this story al-Shabaab has released an audio message by Sheikh Abu Mus'ab Abdul-Aziiz that denied this story and sought to assure listeners of the continued strength and unity of the 'mujahideen'.
Despite the fact that this appears to be yet another false report the tensions between Sheikh Aweys and other al-Shabaab leaders, in particular Ahmed Abdi Godane, continue to remain unresolved. For a good overview of these issues please consider reading the article "Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys and the Politics of the al-Shabaab Split" by al-Jazeera journalist Abdi Aynte.
___________________________________________________________________
The audio of this announcment (in
In the Name of Allah, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful. All praise be to Allah, and peace and blessings be upon our Prophet Muhammad.
Allah the Exalted says:
"الذين يتربصون بكم فإن كان لكم فتح من الله قالوا ألم نكن معكم وإن كان للكافرين نصيب قالوا ألم نستحوذ عليكم ونمنعكم من المؤمنين فالله يحكم بينكم يوم القيامة ولن يجعل الله للكافرين على المؤمنين سبيلا"
(Those (hyprocrites) who wait and watch about you; if you gain a victory from Allah, they say: “Were we not with you,” but if the disbelievers gain a success, they say (to them): “Did we not gain mastery over you and did we not protect you from the believers?” Allah will judge between you (all) on the Day of Resurrection. And never will Allah grant to the disbelievers a way (to triumph) over the believers.) Qur’an Nisaa 131
The Muslim people know that the Muslims or Mujahideen fighting in Somalia against the crusader enemy have passed through many phases and were able at last to unite their ranks, and for the past two years, the Muslims have been enjoying that unity and goodness and the Mujahideens’ united force. The disbelievers weren’t able to tolerate that blessing, bounty and the united strength; they couldn’t bear seeing that and would love to divide the Muslims and to disperse them.
Yesterday, as many people heard, they said in a released report that they would break the unity the Mujahideen achieved, unity that brought happiness to all the Muslims. These people, what forced them to resort to that tactic precisely in this moment can be attributed to two things.
The first thing is that they want to enter into negotiations with the disbelievers so that they can be given political appointments and seats.
The second is that they saw or rather convinced themselves that the Mujahideen have been weakened now and their power has dwindled.
Those two matters have made them announce that they will destroy the unity and pull back from it.
The negotiations, it’s not the first time we are seeing it. We have seen people who claim to be looking for a solution or to be leaders of those seeking to solve the problem. We can remember that Sharif Murtad started by saying that he would enter into negotiations to look for the problems facing the Muslim Somali population. We then saw him on top of the tanks killing Muslims, shelling and bombing them with what the infidels provided him. That is not a new thing, for people who are clad in the cloth of religion to enter into negotiations with the kuffaar. We have seen many and I expect no one is surprised by this.
As regards the claim that the strength of the Mujahideen has declined, it holds no water, because the Mujahideen hand in hand with the Muslim population are facing strong enmity and the greatest alliance of crusaders in recent times, they are fighting against almost six crusader countries who have invaded the country together with the apostate militias, inflicting on them heavy losses and defeat. That shows that their strength has increased and has made the Muslims to become one and face the enemy together, a force that the enemy hasn’t been able to break through, the enemy being confined to a certain towns while the banner of the Prophet stands in all the other parts of the Wilayahs where they are administered with the Islamic Shari’ah. This is proof that the strength of the Mujahideen has increased.
After leaving the matter concerning that report, I want to reiterate the stance of the Mujahideen on this issue. The stand of the Mujahideen regarding everything that is done in order to break the unity of Muslims, where new groups are formed to deceive the Muslims, the Mujahideen previously released a report by the leadership of the Mujahideen on 26-3-2012, which stated that everyone who tries to divide the Muslims will be seen as an enemy of the Muslims who wants to deceive them and will be confronted with heavy opposition.
So, as soldiers of the Mujahideen, we won’t just oppose this report by words only, but we’ll follow it with action God-willing against all who want to disunite the Muslims and divide them.
All the Muslims who are listening to me in and outside the country, I tell them that Allah has bestowed on them and blessed them to have unity, one leadership, and one flag and to face the same direction. That hasn’t brought happiness to a lot of people, mainly hypocrites and the infidels. You are supposed to strengthen that unity and to stand shoulder to shoulder with the Mujahideen, and to oppose anyone who tries to break that unity by words of mouth and every way possible. That is what is required of you.\
Source:
http://amiirnuur.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=7666:abu-musab-we-will-resist-anyone-who-wants-to-disunite-the-muslims&catid=48:wararka
In response to this story al-Shabaab has released an audio message by Sheikh Abu Mus'ab Abdul-Aziiz that denied this story and sought to assure listeners of the continued strength and unity of the 'mujahideen'.
Despite the fact that this appears to be yet another false report the tensions between Sheikh Aweys and other al-Shabaab leaders, in particular Ahmed Abdi Godane, continue to remain unresolved. For a good overview of these issues please consider reading the article "Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys and the Politics of the al-Shabaab Split" by al-Jazeera journalist Abdi Aynte.
___________________________________________________________________
Original Audio here
English Transcript of Audio by Sheikh Abu Mus'ab
The Mujahideen have provided a crucial answer to a press release by a personality named Mohamed Ma’alim who claimed to be a member of Hizbul Islam, the group that united with Harakat Shabaab al-Mujahideen.
Shaykh Abu Mus’ab Abdul-Aziiz recently concluded a press conference held for the media.
Below is the translated transcript of the press release by the official military spokesman of the Mujahideen, Abu Mus’ab Abdul-Aziiz:
The audio of this announcment (in
In the Name of Allah, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful. All praise be to Allah, and peace and blessings be upon our Prophet Muhammad.
Allah the Exalted says:
"الذين يتربصون بكم فإن كان لكم فتح من الله قالوا ألم نكن معكم وإن كان للكافرين نصيب قالوا ألم نستحوذ عليكم ونمنعكم من المؤمنين فالله يحكم بينكم يوم القيامة ولن يجعل الله للكافرين على المؤمنين سبيلا"
(Those (hyprocrites) who wait and watch about you; if you gain a victory from Allah, they say: “Were we not with you,” but if the disbelievers gain a success, they say (to them): “Did we not gain mastery over you and did we not protect you from the believers?” Allah will judge between you (all) on the Day of Resurrection. And never will Allah grant to the disbelievers a way (to triumph) over the believers.) Qur’an Nisaa 131
The Muslim people know that the Muslims or Mujahideen fighting in Somalia against the crusader enemy have passed through many phases and were able at last to unite their ranks, and for the past two years, the Muslims have been enjoying that unity and goodness and the Mujahideens’ united force. The disbelievers weren’t able to tolerate that blessing, bounty and the united strength; they couldn’t bear seeing that and would love to divide the Muslims and to disperse them.
Yesterday, as many people heard, they said in a released report that they would break the unity the Mujahideen achieved, unity that brought happiness to all the Muslims. These people, what forced them to resort to that tactic precisely in this moment can be attributed to two things.
The first thing is that they want to enter into negotiations with the disbelievers so that they can be given political appointments and seats.
The second is that they saw or rather convinced themselves that the Mujahideen have been weakened now and their power has dwindled.
Those two matters have made them announce that they will destroy the unity and pull back from it.
The negotiations, it’s not the first time we are seeing it. We have seen people who claim to be looking for a solution or to be leaders of those seeking to solve the problem. We can remember that Sharif Murtad started by saying that he would enter into negotiations to look for the problems facing the Muslim Somali population. We then saw him on top of the tanks killing Muslims, shelling and bombing them with what the infidels provided him. That is not a new thing, for people who are clad in the cloth of religion to enter into negotiations with the kuffaar. We have seen many and I expect no one is surprised by this.
As regards the claim that the strength of the Mujahideen has declined, it holds no water, because the Mujahideen hand in hand with the Muslim population are facing strong enmity and the greatest alliance of crusaders in recent times, they are fighting against almost six crusader countries who have invaded the country together with the apostate militias, inflicting on them heavy losses and defeat. That shows that their strength has increased and has made the Muslims to become one and face the enemy together, a force that the enemy hasn’t been able to break through, the enemy being confined to a certain towns while the banner of the Prophet stands in all the other parts of the Wilayahs where they are administered with the Islamic Shari’ah. This is proof that the strength of the Mujahideen has increased.
After leaving the matter concerning that report, I want to reiterate the stance of the Mujahideen on this issue. The stand of the Mujahideen regarding everything that is done in order to break the unity of Muslims, where new groups are formed to deceive the Muslims, the Mujahideen previously released a report by the leadership of the Mujahideen on 26-3-2012, which stated that everyone who tries to divide the Muslims will be seen as an enemy of the Muslims who wants to deceive them and will be confronted with heavy opposition.
So, as soldiers of the Mujahideen, we won’t just oppose this report by words only, but we’ll follow it with action God-willing against all who want to disunite the Muslims and divide them.
All the Muslims who are listening to me in and outside the country, I tell them that Allah has bestowed on them and blessed them to have unity, one leadership, and one flag and to face the same direction. That hasn’t brought happiness to a lot of people, mainly hypocrites and the infidels. You are supposed to strengthen that unity and to stand shoulder to shoulder with the Mujahideen, and to oppose anyone who tries to break that unity by words of mouth and every way possible. That is what is required of you.\
Source:
http://amiirnuur.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=7666:abu-musab-we-will-resist-anyone-who-wants-to-disunite-the-muslims&catid=48:wararka
Brief Thoughts on the Surrender of 250 al-Shabaab fighters at Garsale
On Monday 24 September the Somali government and AMISOM publicly accepted the surrender of over 200 alleged al-Shabaab fighters who had been defending the town of Jowhar and were said to be under the command of a man named Shegow Ahmed Ali. Following the surrender of these fighters more are said to have defected bringing to total to approximately 260 defecting fighters.
Video from Sabahi Online
From the reports of this event it would appear that this defection was sparked by a conflict between two rival al-Shabaab groups, one led by Shegow Ahmed Ali and the other by Yusuf Kabo-Kutukade that resulted in the death of 8 Islamist fighters. While the defection has been taken by some as a sign that al-Shabaab has now entered a terminal decline there are several matters concerning this event that may instead require a more cautious analysis.
1) Weapons
While the number of al-Shabaab fighters said to have defected ranges at approximately 250 the number of actual weapons handed in by them has been reported as "over 80" by AMISOM and only as high as 89 elsewhere. In the video above the commander of this al-Shabaab fighters actually reports that the weapons surrendered were "83 assault rifles, one pistol and one grenade" for the 242 fighters he claimed had surrendered.
While the number of weapons to fighters seems absurdly low - not even one weapons for every two fighters - there is also a complete absence of any medium or heavy machine-guns, RPG's or any other heavy weapons that a unit of this size may be expected to have.
This then begs the question why this unit was so lightly armed if it was supposed to be participating in the defence of the town of Jowhar? Several possibilities immediately come to mind regarding this:
- Many individual fighters may have chosen to not surrender their weapons and instead hide them in case they decide to return to al-Shabaab.
- This group of fighters may be comprised largely of conscripts or second-line fighters that al-Shabaab may not have had the resources, or even considered a priority, to arm adequately.
In either case AMISOM and the Somali government may have received a group of fighters who despite leaving al-Shabaab nevertheless wish to hedge their bets or they represent at best a second-rate unit that the Islamist group did not consider a priority to arm adequately.
Picture from Sabahi Online
2) Motivation for the Defection
Shegow Ahmed Ali has been quoted as saying he and his fellow fighters had disagreed with the intimidation, heavy-handed rule of civilians by al-Shabaab. In his criticism he even goes further and expresses disagreement with denouncing other Muslims as apostates and "blowing up innocent people" and as a consequence the group was "not defending the religion (i.e Islam)While the expression of such sentiments from a former al-Shabaab commander will certainly be welcomed they are also rather pro-forma and represent very basic and common criticisms of the group. It may also bear mention that Shegow Ahmed Ali does not seem to have rejected the purported Islamist ideology of al-Shabaab but rather appears to have criticised the group for not having adhered to it more thoroughly.
However, even according to AMISOM the primary reason behind this defection was an inter-group dispute that lead to a loss of life. There may be other factors in play such as al-Shabaab having failed to pay these fighters, or perhaps as mentioned above failing to provide these men with sufficient arms and ammunition that fostered poor morale and laid the groundwork for this defection.
Defections such as this are known to have occurred within other groups and while certainly being welcome should be treated with a hihg-degree of caution. It will now be necessary for the Somali government to treat these fighters in a manner that will ensure their continued disengagement from al-Shabaab and of their rejection of its violent ideology. This of course is in addition to the careful screening of these fighters that must take place due to the ever present threat posed by al-Shabaab agents seeking to infiltrate the Somali National Army and other security forces.
In time this mass defection may indeed prove to have been a sign of al-Shabaab cracking under the strains of military and financial pressure, however, until the above questions are addressed this event represents at best a cause for cautious optimism.
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