Eid al-Fitr Speech by Shiekh Hassan Dahir Aweys in Barawe

There have been many recent reports and and efforts by observers (see here, here and here) of internal tensions and even an impending split among the leadership of al-Shabaab. In addition to the stresses the organisation is suffering from as it continues to come under military pressure on several fronts, there are also said to be disagreements on vision and strategy between those who want the group to have a more internationalist and al-Qaeda aligned outlook (Sheikh Ahmed Abdi Godane "Abu Zubayr") and those who want a more nationalist focus on jihad within Somalia (Mukhtar Robow "Abu Mansur").

Often mentioned within these reports is the role of Shiekh Hassan Dahir Aweys, the former leader of the Islamist Hizbul Islam, which was forcibly incorporated into the structure of al-Shabaab in December 2012 after a period of conflict between the two groups. Given the strong Islamist and jihadist background enjoyed by Sheikh Aweys (see his profile here), and his senitor position within al-Shabaab it is not surprising that his recent criticism of other leaders of the group, particularly Godane, gained considerable attention and interpreted as a sign of an upcoming split within al-Shabaab.

While some of this analysis has certainly been well considered (example here) the recent appearance and speech by Sheikh Aweys on August 19 at an Eid al-Fitr celebration in Barawe in the Lower Shabelle region would seem to discount the possibility of such a split, at least in the immediate future. In this speech he not only stated that  al-Shabaab would fulfill its pledge to recapture areas currently under the control of AMISOM and the Somali government but also called on his audience and those people living in these areas to give their support to the group. This speech will quite rightly be seen as an endorsement of al-Shabaab and its ongoing military campaign by the Sheikh and it is hard to see how he could easily move away from them.

This is not to say that divisions and tensions within the leadership have disappeared, or have even subsided for the time being. Rather, this speech might be considered an effort by the leadership of al-Shabaab to put these efforts aside and focus on the groups battle for survival as it continues to face military and financial pressure under the weight of recent offensives against the group.

Pictures from the event in Barawe, Lower Shabelle

Source: 
http://www.somalimemo.net/index.php/component/content/article/1-warar/2482-sidee-looga-ciiday-magaalada-baraawe-filo-sawirada
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