Plans for a new "Jubbaland State" move forward

The process of establishing a new semi-autonomous region in Somalia took another step forward when the Intergovernmental Authority for Development and the African Union sponsored a conference held on 28-29 June in Nairobi, Kenya. 
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The conference appears to have been an attempt to establish the basic framework for the proposed "Jubbaland State" before the expiry of the Transitional Federal Government's mandate on August 20 this year. In the past both Kenya and Ethiopia have expressed their own separate interest in establishing a new autonomous region in the areas to be covered by "Jubbaland" as something of a buffer against al-Shabaab and the general violence and insecurity that has plagued Somalia since the collapse of its central government in 1991.
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The conference concluded with the release of a communiqué that was signed by representatives of five major Somali organisations that have a presence or otherwise lay claim to a right to control territory within the proposed boundaries of "Jubbaland State":
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1. Transitional Federal Government: Dr Abdi Ali Hassan, Deputy Interior Minister
2. Gedo Defence Forces: Gen. Abdullahi Sheikh Ismail 
3. Azania: Prof. Mohamed Abdi Mohamed "Gandhi"
4. Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamaa'a: Sheikh Mohamed Yusuf Mohamu
5. Ras Kambooni Movement: Macalin Mohamed Ibrahim
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While these groups cannot be said to represent the views and interests of all the clans present in the region of the proposed "Jubbaland" they are certainly the most powerful militarily (that is apart from al-Shabaab) and carry the support of both Kenya and Ethiopia. while political opposition to this plan can be expected from some smaller clans in the region it is likely that their concerns will not carry much weight with any of these parties. Likewise, while the prospect of armed resistance by some smaller clans cannot be comprehensively ruled out, it is unlikely that they would be successful in defeating any coalition of pro-Jubbaland forces.
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In the final communiqué the parties agreed to the following points regarding the proposal to establish the new entity to be known as "Jubbaland State":

• Jubbaland State is to be a regional federal State under the Federal Constitution of Somalia
• Jubbaland State is to be formed by merging together the regions of Gedo, Lower Jubba and Middle Jubba
• Jubbaland State representation will beon the basis of current State and District partitions
• Jubbaland State will have three branches of government: Executive, Legislative and Judicial
• Jubbaland State will unify existing militias into one state security force
• Jubbaland State will be democratic and respect the rights of minorities
• Jubbaland State will be based on Shari'ah Law (Islamic Law)

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Communiqué from the Conference 

Source: http://horn.so/communique-from-the-igadauun-jubbaland-conference/

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RESPONSES TO THE CONFERENCE

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Puntland

The Government of Puntland has demonstrated - perhaps not surprisingly - support for the general principle of a 'Federated States of Somalia' as well as providing recognition and encouragement towards the effort to establish the new administration to be known as Jubbaland State.

Press Release from the Government of Puntland

Puntland State of Somalia
Garowe

Puntland Government Supports Formation of Federated States of Somalia

PRESS RELEASE
4 July 2012

Following the consultative meeting held in Nairobi 28 – 30 June 2012, attended by the important political actors of Lower Jubba, Middle Jubba and Gedo regions (Jubba regions) of southern Somalia, Puntland Government welcomes the formation of Federated States of the Federal Republic of Somalia.

Puntland recognizes the outcome of the Nairobi consultative meeting, which called for the establishment of a Technical Committee to meet on 9 July 2012, to prepare the agenda for a General Convention, and to keep the door open for legitimate political actors and local constituencies to join this peace- building process towards the formation of an interim administration in the Jubba regions of Somalia.

Puntland calls upon the political actors and civil society groups of Jubba regions to unite behind the common purpose of establishing a regional administration for their constituencies, in accordance with the Provisional Federal Constitution of Somalia.
Additionally, Puntland calls upon the political actors and civil society groups of other parts of south-central Somalia to speed-up the formation of district, regional and state administrations in their respective areas, in conformity with the new Federal Constitution of Somalia, as we foresee emerging administrations in areas, such as Bay, Bakool and Lower Shabelle regions.
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Source: http://www.garoweonline.com/artman2/publish/Press_Releases_32/Somalia_Puntland_Government_Supports_Formation_of_Federated_States_of_Somalia.shtml

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Wagosha Movement of Somalia

The Wagosha people are ethnic minority in Somalia who are the descendants of Bantu people who were brought to Somalia as slaves from their homelands in South East Africa. Following the fall of the Siad Barre regime and collapse of the central government in 1991 the Wagosha people, being outnumbered and outgunned by neighboring Somali Somali clans many were forced from their land and were easy victims for the militias that emerged within the anarchy. 

Before the conference the Chairman of the Wagosha Movement of Somalia, Eng Yarow S Aden Mashemba, released a statement declaring opposition to the current project to establish Jubbaland State and condemning the exclusion of the Wagosha from this process. Immediately following the completion of the conference Eng Yarow S Aden Mashemba and the MP Hussein Mohamed Musa Bantu (himself Wagosha) again condemned the process as promoting the interests of clans such as the Ogeden and Harti at the expense of minority clans who live in the region such as the Wagosha. Moving beyond a simple condemnation of this process MP Hussein Mohamed Musa Bantu then warned:

“This is another conspiracy to deny the rights of the Bantu Swahili speaking people in Jubba regions, and it may lead to unnecessary bloodshed to Jubba regions, because it was injustice which put Somalia, where its is now, and another injustice cannot be the remedy of this problem”

Sources:

http://diirad.com/maqaallo/2714-letter-from-wagosha-movement.html

http://www.wagoshanews.com/?p=645

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Garowe Online: Group of elders oppose regional governments in liberated areas

"A group of tribal elders in Mogadishu feel that the Somali government shouldn’t recognize regions captured from Al Shabaab  as federal states at the moment, Garowe Online reports"

Source:  http://www.garoweonline.com/artman2/publish/Somalia_27/Somalia_Group_of_elders_oppose_regional_governments_in_liberated_areas.shtml

ASWJ and the Istanbul II Conference

The recently held Istanbul II conference ambitiously titled “Preparing Somalia’s Future: Goals for 2015” was noteworthy not only for the participation of representatives from 54 countries but also for the fact that it was able to secure the simultaneous attendance of the Transitional Federal Government, Puntland and Somaliland. Notably absent however were any representatives from the Sufi militia Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama’a (ASWJ), a point that was largely ignored outside of Somali media organisations.

According to ASWJ this absence was because the group had not received a formal invitation to attend the conference, a seemingly strange claim given that the website of the Turkish Ministry of foreign affairs states that “Participants will be determined based on the list of invitees for the Istanbul I Conference held in May 2010. Somaliland, Galmudug and ASWJ will be invited.”

While there were apparent some delegates at the conference in Istanbul who claimed to represent ASWJ their participation was denounced and condemned by Abdislan Adan Hussein, the Head of Political Affairs for the group. It is possible that this represents a split within the leadership of ASWJ on the issue of its participation in the current political process; however this would also mean at least some factions remain in opposition to it.

The failure to issue an invitation to ASWJ, if indeed none was given, should be viewed as a matter of concern given the groups often poor relationship with Somalia’s Transitional Federal government. The failure to include ASWJ at the conference should be considered even more surprising given that the group can call on approximately 2,000 fighters and controls substantial amounts of territory in Galgaduud, Gedo and Hiran regions.

It is clear that whatever the case either ASWJ as a whole or at least some factions need to be reconciled with the current peace process in Somalia including the handover of power by the Transitional Federal Government to a new parliament on 20 August. If such a reconciliation does not occur then it is possible that what have until now been largely political disputes may become a military confrontation between the internationally backed government in Mogadishu and the clans who provide ASWJ with fighters and support. Whether or not relations between ASWJ and the Mogadishu-based government reach such a point much will depend on the ability of Ethiopia to exert influence of ASWJ given its years of providing military and logistical support to the group

ASWJ Statment on Istanbul II Conference


See the International Crisis Group 2010 Report Somalia's Divided Islamists and this article from SomaliaReport for more background information on ASWJ.